Car sales in 2010 will exceed 18 million. China Automobile Association statistics show that the production and sales of passenger cars in November completed 1,364,500 and 1,339,800, respectively, an increase of 13.83% and 11.30%, an increase of 26.97% and 29.27%. Among them, the production and sales of MPV increased by more than 50% year-on-year, and the growth of SUV production and sales was more than 80%.

In November, the production and sales of commercial vehicles completed 390,300 units and 357,300 units respectively, a year-on-year increase of 13.12% and 5.84%, and a year-on-year increase of 23.22% and 18.59% respectively.

In terms of inventory, by the end of November, the inventory of auto companies (excluding inventory at the retail chain) was 602,200 units, an increase of 58,100 vehicles from the beginning of the month. China Automobile Association, said that the current inventory is still within normal range.

Xu Yingbo, automotive analyst at CITIC Securities, told reporters that the sales figures for November are very good. Considering seasonal factors, the annual sales in November will be about 10% higher than in October. However, the high base in October this year reached this in November. The level is obviously very impressive. As the preferential taxation policy for purchase tax is about to expire, under the influence of early consumption factors, sales will remain strong in December and are expected to increase by 5%-10% from the previous period.

China Automobile Association said that at the end of the year, it was the peak of automobile production and sales. Affected by consumers' concerns about the withdrawal of related policies on car concessions next year, and the upcoming introduction of the Beijing blockade plan, November production hit a new monthly high and sales were the second highest during the year. From monthly production changes, the output in November was higher than in the same month of 2005-2008, slightly lower than the same month in 2009. Therefore, it can be judged that the production in November is still within the normal range. China Automobile Association expects that the automobile production and sales in December will still have a good performance. The sales volume of more than 18 million vehicles in the whole year has no suspense.

Does China's auto market turn left or right in 2011?

Although there is still the last month in 2010, "the light boat has passed the Wanzhong Mountain". This year, the bumper harvest in China's auto market has no suspense. People have already set their sights on the auto market in 2011. Will it continue to show growth this year next year? Will the auto market turn left or right? Has become a hot topic of concern in the industry.

The number of variables will increase next year. In fact, facing the high growth of the auto market this year, many car companies are not afraid to be optimistic because the auto market will not be as easy as next year. After entering the fourth quarter of this year, the prices of various production and living materials rose from grain to cotton, from fuel to rubber, just like wild animals. Under the pressure of high inflation, industry insiders predict that at the forthcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December, China’s macroeconomic policies may change in 2011, and monetary, credit, interest rates, and exchange rates will all be tightened. From "active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy" to "active fiscal policy and sound monetary policy." The key to this change is monetary policy from "moderately relaxed" to "robust". The tone of "tight monetary, broad fiscal" may become the main tone of macroeconomic policy in 2011.

In fact, the recent tightening of monetary policy has been revealed. In October, the People’s Bank of China launched its first interest rate hike in three years. In November, in less than half a month, the central bank raised the reserve requirement ratio twice for the first time. This is only part of macroeconomic control. Industry insiders expect that from the monetary, credit, interest rate to exchange rate adjustment framework, the overall macroeconomic tone next year will be "full tightening." The public's consumer psychology will also tighten, and then it will be transmitted to the factory's expected production schedule. A car maker warns that although the market is forecast to be the most unreliable thing, the tight macroeconomic situation still reminds people not to be blindly optimistic.

By the end of this year, the task of the auto industry in responding to the financial crisis and stimulating economic growth has been basically completed. If the domestic economy does not decline due to anti-inflation by the end of this year, the international economy is performing steadily, cancellation of purchase tax preferences is a high-probability event, and other stimulus policies are also It may be cancelled. This will undoubtedly have a major impact on the market next year. China's auto market is a policy market. Under the stimulation of the policy, the domestic auto market has been in reverse against the backdrop of the poor global financial environment in the past two years. However, the biggest drawback of the policy market is that if the policy weakens or the market fluctuates in the next year, it will be relatively large, and it will be difficult to sustain high growth in car sales in the next two years.

Step into the "crossroads"

Due to the existence of these uncertain factors, the Chinese car market also faces a dilemma. The energy-saving auto subsidy program encourages the purchase of cars, and the introduction of a tax on vehicles and boats inhibits the purchase of cars; while the former encourages small-displacement and the latter suppresses large-displacement, its policy direction and restraining effect will appear as counter-stimulus to purchase impulses. The automobile industry needs support, and domestic needs need to be cultivated and promoted. However, such barriers as bidding for big city licenses, and levying congestion fees, increasing parking fees, and using parking spaces to use card purchases, etc. may occur, which will undoubtedly increase the burden on car buyers. Suppress consumer demand for cars.

Experts predict that the stocks of self-owned brands that rely on policy protection are generally higher, and many self-owned car enterprises are difficult to complete sales targets set at the beginning of the year. Therefore, many self-owned brand car manufacturers are worried that sales of self-owned brands based on small-displacement car sales will be further affected after the cancellation of purchase tax concessions.

For the people, once the preferential policies are cancelled, it will mean an increase in the purchase of cars. To calculate the price of a 100,000 yuan 1.6L displacement model, if the policy adjustment next year to the normal level of purchase tax 10%, and then counted up to the end of the 3,000 yuan Huimin energy subsidies, then you may spend 5239 more than the original Yuan, if you count on the ever-increasing taxation factor of the travel tax, the cost of multiple expenditures is likely to reach nearly 6,000 yuan. In addition, the industry has made judgments on the general trend of the economy next year and the trend of oil prices, and believes that the average price of oil will increase next year, and it will remain around US$85 per barrel. However, demand does not support excessive price increases. Corporate profitability will decline.

For ten million car owners who have a dream of buying a car, perhaps they have never paid close attention to the policy. Following the consumption tax, fuel tax and purchase tax, the tax on vehicles and boats has become the focus of people's hot discussion. Judging from the published plans, the tax burden on most vehicle owners will increase. In addition, how will the purchase tax change next year? Can the subsidy to the countryside continue? All kinds of unpredictable factors are intertwined, adding more tangles to the auto market next year.

The growing Chinese car seems to be at a crossroads. The auto market has also become difficult and turbulent. Does car consumption really encourage or restrict purchases? Is it encouraged or restricted? Is it encouraged to restrict the use of purchases, or to restrict purchases as well as to limit use, or not to encourage purchases or encourage use?

Market "return to rationality"

It is expected that by the end of this year, the domestic auto market sales will reach a historic 17 million vehicles, and passenger cars will also exceed 10 million class levels. With such a large base, the record and increase should not be the goals pursued. China has entered the automobile society. However, China is obviously not ready for the automobile society to arrive so soon. Whether it is energy supply, urban infrastructure, exhaust gas control, or even car culture, there is a deficiency. The ultra-high speed development exposes the contradictions of people, cars, and society.

In 2011, the auto industry should pay more attention to energy conservation and emission reduction. In some cities where traffic is relatively congested, related restrictions may be introduced. The taxation policy for the automobile industry is basically “adding”. In this context, the growth of car sales will be “ Return to rationality." The Chinese auto industry should shift its emphasis on production and sales from the past to improving quality.

Looking back at the auto market this year, it can be said that several families are happy. Some brands began to fierce, but all the way down it seems to be weak; and some car companies seem to be tepid, but they can accumulate, in the "chaotic" in the auto market more and more brave and proactive.

This means that although this year's auto market continues to show a strong growth trend, but next year's auto market, car companies to eat "big pot" will no longer exist. The reason is that on the one hand, with the acceleration of the pace of new car launches, passenger car products can be said to be extremely rich, and the situation in short supply will rarely occur, and the homogenization of competition will become more and more serious; second, consumers The demand for product quality and brand of passenger cars has gone up a step. In particular, the appeal for product brands and the recognition of corporate brands have undergone great changes along with the development of the auto market.

As far as the future is concerned, those who are in a strong position in terms of product quality, sales methods, sales channels, brand strength, and corporate brands will be able to rely on their own strength and be in a strong position in the market. Therefore, it can be foreseen that the upcoming 2011 will be a new era in which a product will be able to win and the brand will win. In addition, the sinking of the second and third tier market channels has long been a consensus in the industry, but whoever can take the lead can gain market and brand competitiveness in the future. To ensure the continued healthy development of the Chinese auto industry, it is necessary to consider the constraints of energy, environment, and social support. Only by maintaining moderate growth can we achieve sustainable development. (Xinmin Evening News / Li Yongsheng)