Iron and steel industry: The spread of steel prices at home and abroad may continue to expand

August 16 02:10:21, 2023

"Two extensions" require China to accept a 95% price increase for iron ore. According to foreign reports, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton require Chinese steel companies to accept iron ore prices up to the maximum extent on Mondays, or they will stop supplying old iron ore when some of the annual contracts expire. To the spot market: Many domestic and foreign institutions are watching the price of iron ore in the second half of the year. According to the news from China United Iron and Steel Network, the recent reports from many domestic and foreign analysts have changed significantly along with the idea of ​​consistently bullish iron ore. A number of research institutes including Macquarie Securities and others have reported that in the second half of 2008, due to the significant increase in iron ore supply, the global iron ore market may experience oversupply. While the iron ore supply in the Chinese market is in excess of demand, iron ore prices will continue to decline in the second half of the year. According to calculations made by the Macquarie Bank model, even if possible delays in or delays in production are taken into consideration, the supply of iron ore will continue to increase significantly in 2008, not only making up for the shortage of supply in 2007, but also making up for the inventories of iron ore. Reconstruction needs. It is expected that supply growth will exceed consumption growth by 30 million tons. In 2009, supply growth may be slightly slower than demand, but iron ore supply will still exceed 27 million tons.

The US ruled that China's carbon steel pipe will cause damage to the US related industries. According to China United Steel News, the US Department of Commerce has made a definitive ruling that the standard pipe originating in China has been subsidized by the government and the selling price in the U.S. market is lower than the “fair price”. The U.S. International Trade Commission also ruled that the standard management of Chinese exports to the United States caused damage to related industries in the United States. This means that the United States will impose punitive tariffs on this product that China exports to the United States in the next five years.

Steel prices continue to rise as China's steel exports remain low, resulting in tight supply. According to China Union Steel News, Australia’s Macquarie Bank analyst Lennon said that as long as China does not raise steel exports, steel prices are expected to continue to climb, and Chinese steel companies have been hit by high raw material costs and export taxes. The rise in raw materials and allowances has hit the smaller Chinese steel industry and has failed to pass on these costs to consumers. China’s export tariffs on certain steel products have caused China’s steel exports to stagnate, further contributing to the tightening of global supply. Lie said that he estimates that China's steel production this year is expected to be 550 million tons, and that the output before 2010 is expected to reach about 700 million tons. Global steel demand growth is still stronger than expected. India and Western Europe have become net importers. If China does not increase exports, steel prices will continue to rise.

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