Affected by the plunge in international crude oil prices, the domestic market for polypropylene, polyethylene, PTA, rubber, and methanol all showed a downward trend.

“The price of refined oil and other oil products is most obviously affected by the drop in international oil prices.” Zhu Chunkai, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang, told the Futures Daily that apart from being an energy source, crude oil is also a basic raw material for chemicals. The decline in international oil prices will affect the mentality of the relevant species investors, leading to the emergence of domino effect.

Since June of this year, the largest fall in the value of the plastics futures of the DEC has been 26%, the largest decrease in PVC futures was 13%, the largest decrease in the PP futures was 23.7%, and the largest decrease in the PTA futures was 41.4%. .

The degree of domestic marketization of crude oil and chemical products is not yet high enough. The international crude oil price will generally lag behind the price of domestic plastics, PP and related products. “However, the degree of marketization of PTA is relatively high, and it is more sensitive to changes in international crude oil prices. The decline in oil prices has the most significant effect on the price of PTA,” said the analyst.

In addition to being dragged down by the drop in crude oil prices, the decline in chemical fiber-related products also has a serious overcapacity factor. Analysts believe that the current PTA companies limit production insured prices, can only support the PTA stage, unable to fundamentally reverse the decline in PTA prices.

As the international crude oil price “drops and falls”, the current downstream companies will not be willing to purchase polyester filament stocks, and they will adopt the out-of-the-box strategy. “In the context of PTA cost collapse, downstream companies continue to bearish on the outlook. PTA demand may be curbed. PTA prices still have room to fall. In addition, the recent decline in plastic than PP, the market outlook may continue to fall."

The reporter found that in the process of the decline of crude oil all the way, the PP spot is under pressure. According to the data, as of last Friday (December 12), the PP price in the domestic market fell by 100-300 yuan/ton compared with the end of June this year. On the 12th of this month, some PetroChina companies lowered their PP ex-factory prices. PP futures opened lower and higher in the past two days, but their sentiment on the spot market was limited. Most businesses continue to look after the market and actively ship. At the same time, the downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait to see if the willingness to receive goods is low, and PP spot market transactions are relatively light.

It is understood that the raw materials for plastic products are mainly petroleum ethylene, and the drop in the price of crude oil will greatly reduce the production cost of synthetic plastics. The rubber market was also affected by the price of crude oil. The drop in crude oil prices lowered the production cost and price of synthetic rubber and drove down the price of natural rubber.

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